From Bottleneck.org
I Have Never Voted Tory, But...
As I write this, it looks likely that the UK is going to be in hung parliament territory at this general election, with the Conservatives having the largest number of seats.
What this means is that, with no party with an outright majority, the current Prime Minister (Gordon Brown, Labour) has the right to remain in office until it's clear that he cannot command a majority. Of course, one would normally expect him, if he tried to do so, to be voted down on the Queen's speech, or to suffer a vote of no confidence, at which point the Queen would normally invite the party with the most seats (the Conservatives) to try to form a government.
The way out, should he wish to remain, is to spend the next few days trying to do deals with other parties (the Liberal Democrats and/or others) to have them agree to support his government. Given how far short of the required number of seats for a majority Labour are falling, this would be most likely to take the form of a coalition government, with representatives from both Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the cabinet.
One of the conditions that the Liberal Democrats would impose on such an arrangement is certain to be electoral reform. We could expect to see a referendum on electoral reform over the coming months, and then the dissolution of parliament again, probably within 18 months to two years, followed by another general election under the new electoral rules, some form of proportional representation.
I believe the proportional representation is a fairer system than the current first-passed-the-post system, and that any situation in which the United Kingdom has a wider range of parties who can have a genuine influence on the country is a good one. I want to get away from politics that are about "I'm not the other party, so if you don't like them you must vote for me" and on to politics where parties actually have to be elected on their own issues.
So you might think I'd be in favour of a Labour-Liberal Democrat pact that forms a coalition government and brings through electoral reform. In many ways, I am - but not right now. I've come to the conclusion, and I hate to say it, that a minority Conservative government would be the best thing for the country right now.
The problem is that the nation, while it hasn't fully endorsed the Conservative Party, has certainly sent a message that they no longer want Gordon Brown in charge of the country. My fear is that, should Labour manage to hold on to power by forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the people of this country will feel cheated. They will feel that they have no real influence over the outcome of the elections, that sly double-dealing by politicians has taken place to stifle the opinion of the electorate. In that case, I fear that, even after electoral reform, the country en masse will turn to the Conservatives, believing that still stronger tactical voting is the only way to guarantee the outcome they want (Brown out). Those who saw hope in the idea of voting for a third party this time will abandon that idea as a failed experiment.
And what of that electoral reform? What happens at the referendum? The Conservative message will be clear: "Look how Labour and the Liberal Democrats conspired to overturn your election result, to force themselves back in to power despite the clear wishes of the country. Look at how now they have forced their way back in to power, and realising that they cannot win an election under the current system, they're trying to change the system to their advantage" I suspect that would be a message that would be believed by a lot of frustrated and angry voters who thought that they had already evicted Labour once.
With a minority Conservative government, there is sufficient opposition in the house to keep in check the worst of the Conservative ideas and to keep the Conservative government continually under scrutiny. I hope that it will lead to more debate, and more possibility for parties to find common grounds that provide a reasonable compromise that works for the majority of the country. Ultimately, with a minority government the next general election will probably have to occur much sooner than another five years, which limits the degree of impact the Conservative government could have. Perhaps by the time we get to that point, the Liberal Democrats and Labour party will have been able to explain the case for electoral reform to a more sympathetic ear, the ear of a nation that's got the result it wanted, and by then may not be any happier with it than they were with Labour.
So, I've never voted Tory, but... I hope that they form a minority government, in the hope that in turn leads to us getting a second chance to vote for real change.